Zimbabwe’s 2025/26 National Budget, and what it really means for the 2026 property market: Part 2
Reading the Budget Part 1
The 2025/26 Budget dropped into a market already defined by one thing: uncertainty disguised as confidence.
Developers are still building.
Buyers are still buying.
Diaspora money is still flowing in.
But beneath all that activity…the market doesn’t have a shared understanding of what the Budget actually means for real estate in 2026.
And that’s dangerous.
When a market lacks shared intelligence, three things break down:
1. Pricing becomes speculative.
2. Risk becomes invisible.
3. Buyers make emotional rather than strategic decisions.
onBoulevard exists to stop that from happening.
So this issue was not written to “analyse the Budget.”
Everyone does that.
This issue was written to solve a deeper problem:
Zimbabwe doesn’t have a property intelligence layer.
Not one that translates fiscal policy into investor positioning.
This is the layer onBoulevard is building for.
Where Capital Will Actually Flow. Not Where Policy Thinks It Will
The national Budget does not reshape the property market through allocations.
It reshapes it through expectations.
The 2025/26 fiscal plan sends two messages simultaneously:
1. Government signals stability and currency discipline.
2. Buyers and developers respond by repositioning before the real economy actually adjusts.
In Zimbabwe, property moves on psychology first, fundamentals later.
This issue focuses on that psychology, because that’s where the 2026 winners will come from.
Fiscal Signals: What the Budget Really Told the Market
Most commentary stops at tax changes and spending.
That’s not where the property market reacts.
The five signals the Budget actually sent:
1. Currency Transition Will Accelerate, Not Slow Down
The Budget reinforces a medium-term consolidation toward a domestically anchored currency.
This creates a dual response:
Short-term: Increased hedging → more USD-driven deals, faster decision cycles.
Medium-term: Higher buyer caution → “verify before committing.”
Developers understand this, so pre-selling behaviour intensifies.
2. Inflation Expectations Have Been Pulled Down Slightly
When the fiscal narrative is “discipline,” developers assume slower cost inflation in 2026.
But the construction supply chain doesn’t react instantly.
This means:
Price lists stabilise first. Actual build costs stabilise later.
The gap becomes a risk (or opportunity) zone.
3. Government Spending Points Toward Infrastructure, Not Consumption
This favours:
Clusters in emerging nodes
Areas with improving road + utility spend
Developers who can align servicing timelines with public works
It disadvantages:
Peri-urban projects with weak servicing
Low-infrastructure stands requiring private buyers to fund everything
4. Tax Posture = Risk Posture
The occurrence of aggressive taxation signals:
“We are here to disrupt capital allocation.”
This inadvertently increases investor willingness to commit to long-duration assets like property, particularly those with clarity on title, developer liquidity, and servicing.
5. Liquidity Remains Tight
No fiscal expansion = no liquidity expansion.
So the market continues to rely heavily on:
Diaspora flows
Cash buyers
Off-plan instalment buyers
Liquidity pressure will influence pricing realism more than fiscal policy.
Buyer Psychology Heading Into 2026
Behaviour drives prices, more than the Budget ever will.
Three distinct buyer mindsets emerge:
1. Middle-Income Homebuyers: Hedging First, Upgrading Later
They want security.
They want predictability.
They don’t trust the currency transition timeline.
So behaviour becomes:
Buy smaller
Buy earlier
Verify harder
Walk away faster
This is the new normal of middle-income demand.
2. Diaspora Buyers: From Deal FOMO → Deal QA
Diaspora inflows remain strong.
But priorities are shifting:
Less interest in raw land without services
More interest in turnkey + clusters
Higher due diligence expectations
Lower trust in “developer timelines”
This leads to a verification-first funnel.
Most diaspora buyers already assume something will be wrong. they just need to know what and how bad.
3. High-Net-Worth Capital: Flight to Certainty, Not Assets
HNWI buyers prioritise:
Location defensiveness
Developer solvency
Legal clarity
Projects with actual site activity
They would rather overpay for certainty than get a “deal” filled with risk.
This shapes which high-end clusters will survive 2026.
Developer Response: How Supply Will Adjust in the Next 12 Months
Developers read the Budget as a timing signal, not an economic signal.
Three shifts are already visible:
1. Pre-Selling Will Intensify
Developers will try to get ahead of potential cost inflation.
Expect:
Aggressive early-bird pricing
More stages/phases released
Shorter offer windows
More bundled “discounts” to pull in cash flow
2. Timeline Stretching Returns
Budget doesn’t increase liquidity.
This means:
Slower servicing
Construction sequence delays
Cashflow recycling across multiple projects
Buyers need to verify actual on-site progress, not promised timelines.
3. Clusters Become the Default Development Template
Because:
They’re easier to finance
They allow staged execution
They provide developer liquidity more predictably
They are easier to market to the diaspora
But cluster saturation risk becomes real.
2026 Projection: Capital Flows, Winners & Vulnerabilities
This is where fiscal signals + psychology + supply converge.
Winners (High Confidence Zones)
✔ Serviced stands inside established nodes
Demand durability + low developer default risk.
✔ Mid-tier clusters with visible progress
Diaspora-friendly, predictable, hedge-like.
✔ Townhouses in high-utility zones
Strong rental yield + diaspora tenant demand.
✔ Developers with clean books and actual machinery
They will capture buyer trust effortlessly in 2026.
Neutral Zones (Requires Verification)
Early-stage cluster projects
Good upside → but highest execution risk.
Off-plan builds without escrow or transparent cashflow tracking
2026 will expose weak balance sheets.
Vulnerabilities (High Downside Risk)
✘ Raw land in poorly serviced peri-urban areas
Liquidity collapse + buyer fatigue = slow resale.
✘ Developers offering extreme discounts
Sign of cashflow pressure → verify solvency.
✘ Instalment-heavy developments with low capital reserves
Currency shifts + inflation → severe execution delays.
CLOSING
The Budget didn’t necessarily create chaos.
It didn’t create euphoria either.
It created signals.
And the market’s response to those signals will be clearer than ever:
In 2026, Zimbabwe’s property market won’t reward the bold. It will reward the well-informed.
This issue is your advantage.
— Zivanai
Founder, onBoulevard
PS.
Developers/Agents: Want your property verified and packaged in a way that speaks the language of serious buyers and investors?
Submit your listing for an Investor ROI Memo
Diaspora Investors: Want to see clarity in action?
Reply to this email with a property link, and we’ll show how an Investor ROI Memo would frame it.
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